nov84

A change we cannot ignore

There is a lot of fear around AI. Will it take our jobs? Will it replace us? What will be left for people to do?

My view is that AI is one of the biggest changes in our lives since the Industrial Revolution. I see it as an unstoppable force that will change how we work, how we build and how we think about the future. That is my conviction, not a claim that anyone can predict exactly how this will unfold.

But the future I see is not only a story of replacement. I see the possibility of tremendous abundance. The reason is productivity: a single person, working with powerful tools, may be able to do far more than was possible before.

Why I see a future of abundance

Technology changes what people can produce. The history of car manufacturing offers a useful example. The Library of Congress describes how Ford's moving assembly line reduced Model T assembly time from about twelve and a half hours to ninety-three minutes. That was a change in an entire production system, not one person pressing a button and making cars appear. [1]

I believe AI could bring a similarly important change to work that depends on knowledge and judgment. There is already evidence of gains in specific settings. A study of 5,172 customer-support agents found that access to a generative AI assistant increased issues resolved per hour by 15% on average. The gains were uneven, with less experienced workers benefiting more. That does not prove a whole economy will improve at the same rate. It does show why I take the potential seriously. [2]

Like the internet, AI will bring pluses and minuses. I do not think optimism requires us to dismiss the risks. Those risks need to be taken seriously and reduced.

A little money could buy much more

I also believe this could be a deflationary future: as productivity rises and goods and services become more abundant, a little money could buy much more. By that I mean greater purchasing power, not money becoming worthless.

That is my outlook, not a guaranteed economic result. A BIS research paper explains why AI could push prices in different directions: higher productivity can expand supply, while investment and higher incomes can raise demand. The timing and balance matter. I see the possibility of lower costs and wider access, but I do not assume every price will fall or every household will benefit automatically. [5]

Abundance for whom?

More production does not answer the question that concerns me most: who gets to share in it?

I worry about a divide between the haves and the have-nots. People and businesses at the forefront of this change may accumulate enormous wealth, while others struggle to find their place. An economy can become more productive while the distance between its people grows.

This concern has a basis in research, even though the outcome is not predetermined. An IMF working paper, using household data and a model calibrated to the United Kingdom, shows how AI could affect wages and wealth differently. Wage gaps could narrow in some scenarios while wealth becomes more concentrated through higher returns to capital. It is a model of possible mechanisms, not proof of what every country will experience. [3]

Nor does exposure to AI mean that an entire job disappears. The ILO's 2025 assessment finds that one in four workers worldwide is in an occupation with some exposure to generative AI, and judges transformation more likely than complete replacement for most occupations. That leaves a serious transition to manage, not a reason to assume everyone will be replaced. [4]

The question that should guide us

I am optimistic about what AI can make possible. I am concerned about who could be left out. Both views belong in the same conversation.

The question is not simply how much more we can produce. It is how we make sure that wealth and opportunity are shared, rather than concentrated among a small number of people. How do we keep a future of abundance from becoming a future of greater division?

That is where I want to begin this commentary on AI and the future. I believe the change ahead will be enormous. Whether its gains reach people broadly is a question we cannot afford to leave unanswered.

References

1. Ford Implements the Moving Assembly Line. Library of Congress · historical reference. Read source. Supports the 1913 assembly-line analogy and reduction from 12.5 hours to 93 minutes. This is a system-level manufacturing example, not evidence for fully autonomous one-button production.

2. Generative AI at Work. Brynjolfsson, Li and Raymond · Quarterly Journal of Economics · May 2025. Read source. Published study: 5,172 customer-support agents, 15% average productivity gain. A measured result in one work setting, not an economy-wide forecast.

3. AI Adoption and Inequality. IMF Working Paper 2025/068 · April 2025. Read source. UK household data and a calibrated model distinguish wage effects from wealth effects through capital returns. Scenario results depend on assumptions; a working paper is not a settled forecast or official policy prescription.

4. Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO Working Paper 140 · 20 May 2025. Read source. One in four workers in occupations with some GenAI exposure; job transformation is judged more likely than complete replacement. Exposure is not a measured layoff rate.

5. The impact of artificial intelligence on output and inflation. BIS Working Paper 1179 · 17 April 2024. Read source. Supports the qualification to the author's deflation outlook. Its macroeconomic model finds uncertain inflation effects: productivity can expand supply while investment and higher incomes raise demand.

6. AI Will Transform the Global Economy. Let’s Make Sure It Benefits Humanity.. Kristalina Georgieva · IMF Blog · 14 January 2024. Read source. Additional context on productivity, capital returns, unequal preparedness, safety nets and retraining. These policy options are not inserted as the author's commitments.